Realtors have three more days to report closed sales so these may change a bit, however here are the housing numbers for January 2012 compared to January 2011 as reported by member brokers to the MLS: new listings 318 down 3.04%; closed home sales 183 up 2.23%, listings going under contract 295 up 21.9% better than the 294 in 2008 before the meltdown, but still far behind the 360 in 2007. The median sale price of $111,000 was up 1.36%

All in all a great start to the year. Comparing January to the five year average to give us some perspective closed home sales were dead even with the average, and believe me after the past four years even is great, and the listings going under contract are up 3% over the five year average.

January of 2011 was the only month the entire year to beat the five year average. With the surge in sales pending in January there’s no doubt February will finish well up over last year and hopefully the five year average. I must temper my enthusiasm because they all won’t close. The rate of failed contracts remains fairly high between 15% and 20% failing to close.

There was good news on the jobs front as reported by AP in today’s SJR Business section regarding unemployment. There was a net 243,000 jobs created in January and the unemployment rate was reported to drop to 8.3% the best since February of 2009. Locally in December unemployment was reported at 7.5% up a .5% from 2010, and the state unemployment rate was 9.8% up .6% from 2010.

Once again I must temper my enthusiasm because this is an election year. The Secretary of Labor will put the best light on unemployment numbers as possible for her boss because the economy is the number one issue on voters minds. The AP which occasionally performs complete journalism also is overtly for President Obama’s reelection, and therefore didn’t provide the whole story on unemployment, only the favorable news. In my opinion the act of omission is as great a sin as the act of commission.

Here’s what the AP left out of their reporting. They reported in their subheadline “Surge drops jobless rate to 8.3%”. This is patently misleading, and probably on purpose. What the AP failed to report is a record 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force a record for any month ever, and the participation rate fell to 63.4% of Americans working, the fewest since Jimmy Carter was president. Here is a link to the Bureau of Labor report that AP conveniently omitted: http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdata.bls.gov%2Ftimeseries%2FLNS11300000&h=VAQGe68PfAQE-LrapfCTSIQY1WRwekTYSJyyVTSRCSHw3wg

The truth is the 1.2 million workers no longer counted is the reason for the drop in the unemployment rate to 8.3%. The CBO reported this week that if the number out of work were compared to the number of jobs in America when President Obama took office the unemployment rate would be 9.8%.  When comparing the number out of work to the number of jobs in America in December of 2007, the month the recession began, the unemployment rate would be 11%.

In this election year when so many bureaucrats need to spin the economy to look good so they can keep their jobs if their boss is elected, I have decided to go with Gallup’s report on unemployment. They don’t have a dog in the hunt. Here’s a link to Gallup’s January 2012 unemployment report: http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gallup.com%2Fpoll%2F152432%2FUnemployment-January.aspx%3Futm_source%3Dadd%2Bthis%26utm_medium%3Daddthis.com%26utm_campaign%3Dsharing%23.Ty0hzmngwcs.facebook&h=aAQH5Vt7VAQGRQpw2pCBSn2H9cchcBfgMkCq1dIFZ5oIyQQ

Gallup says unemployment in January is 8.6% and the underemployment rate is 18.7%. Below are the graphs on unemployment rates. You must add the unemployment rate with the underemployment rate to arrive at the total percentage rate of unemployment at 18.7%.

As good as the news is about the 243,000 jobs created I remain cautiously optimistic knowing this increase in jobs remains tepid. Professor Judd says that we need 300,000 net jobs a month for 36 straight months to bring unemployment back down to 7%. This is but one month but it is the closest we’ve been to reaching that 300,000 mark in years.

We’ve got to be encouraged that jobs at least appear to be going up. Shows the true grit of the private sector struggling to create jobs in the face of the massive impediments government has placed upon them with billions of dollars in new regulations from the most massive and intrusive laws in history that are stifling growth; Obamacare and Dodd Frank.

Although the administration crows about 1.82 million jobs created last year, you need about 1.4 million just to meet demand for new entrants entering the labor force, all the while millions no longer counted wait to return. We’ve a long way to go.

The economy cannot recover until housing recovers because 1 in 4 jobs is tied to housing. Manufacturing jobs were up 50,000 in January and have been the bright spot in the economy the past three years. Following the worst year on record for new home sales and construction, and the second worst year on record for existing home sales, just imagine how many manufacturing jobs would have been created if housing had recovered.

The president came out this week with a plan to help underwater homeowners. This will be a topic for another day, but let me just say it’s like a Christmas present from your grandma, you’re not sure what’s in it, but you’re pretty sure you’re not going to like it. In a nutshell this new program will be a boondoggle, will add massive amounts to the deficit in spite of what the president has said, and will only delay once again the housing recovery. Housing must hit bottom before it can rise back up. Government intervention only delays the bottom.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

What these extremists aren’t confessing is that they hate oil for the sake of hating oil. They are of the climate change zealotry family. They ignore the fact that this is not settled science, but a theory. Just because Saint Gore says so doesn’t make it so.

Ninety-three percent of our industry and transportation are dependent upon fossil fuels. The rejection of this pipeline not only costs jobs, but a vital resource desperately needed following a year with the highest average per gallon price of gas in our history. Food prices increased another 11% to the highest on record in 2011.

These zealots prefer struggling families not receive any relief. Joblessness, hunger, and poverty are fine as long as oil is demonized.

Here’s the facts: The Corps of Engineers approved it, the Department of Agriculture approved it, the Department of Interior approved it, the Department of Transportation approved it, the Environmental Protection Agency – believe it or not – approved it, the Defense Department approved it; the Justice Department approved it, the Homeland Security Department approved it and the Department of Commerce approved it. After three years of study.

At question is a 45 mile stretch in Nebraska that zealots zeroed in on. The work could have begun putting thousands to work while details were finalized for those 45 miles of the 1700 mile pipeline. The Ogallala Aquifer is massive with 21,000 miles of existing pipelines already operating within its boundaries.

No the facts are clear, zealots threatened Obama publicly to withhold donations for his campaign if he approved the pipeline. Donations appear more important to Obama than affordable food, gas, and jobs for the American people. Irrational hatred of oil more important to zealots than people.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

Jan. 3rd, 2007 was the day that Barney Frank took over the House Financial Services Committee and Chris Dodd took over the Senate Banking Committee, & Barack Obama became a senator. George Bush went to congress 17 times since 2001 to stop Fannie and Freddie lending practices. Frank and Dodd blocked the action and cried Chicken Little. 15 months later came the economic meltdown, and the sky did fall.

Barack Obama voted for every massive spending bill, CR, Omnibus bill, and TARP. The 2007 deficit, the last of the Republican budgets, was the lowest in five years at $161 billion, and the fourth straight decline in deficit spending.

Obama campaigned on the promise to cut the Bush deficit in half during his first term, calling the $4 trillion added to U.S. debt by Bush in eight years unpatriotic. Obama was elected on the promise of Hope and Change claiming to have the solution, government spending, that would make the U.S. economy recover with 3.5 million jobs created by the end of 2010 and keep unemployment below 8%. On December 31, 2010 2.1 million jobs had been lost, and $2.5 trillion was added to the debt. The unemployment rate was 9.4%.

If Obama inherited anything, he inherited it from himself. What Obama is saying is “I inherited a deficit that I voted for, and then quadrupled since January 20th, 2009. GDP under Obama has increased 6% in 3 years. During the same time frame in the Reagan recovery GDP grew 16%. Unemployment had fallen to 7.3% by this time under Reagan who inherited double digit inflation, interest rates, and skyrocketing unemployment.

In Obama’s recovery unemployment stands at 8.5%, which the CBO reported yesterday, if counting the out of work compared to the number of jobs when Obama took office would be 9.8%. The CBO also projected GDP growth at 2.2% for 2012, unemployment to finish the year over 9%. The CBO projected that Obama spending during his first term would add $5 trillion to U.S. debt.

In 2009 when the Stimulus was passed Obama projected 5% GDP growth by 2012. The 2011 GDP growth at 1.7% was the weakest in any non-recession year since 1947.The DOW closed yesterday at 12,632.91. 31 months have passed since the end of the recession in June of 2009, without recovery and with record length of unemployment, number of people in poverty, on welfare, on food stamps. Gas finished 2011 at a record high for the average cost per gallon, food prices increased another 11%.

Yep it was all Bush’s fault. We can’t wait to see what we get if Obama, and Democrats get four more years. This time you won’t hear the empty platitudes and soaring rhetoric of Hope and Change. This time Obama has a record. You just read that record. It is abysmal.

This time you will hear the divisive screech of envy and class warfare as the Democrats pit citizen against citizen with their tax the rich, economic fairness, equality of outcome, and wealth redistribution solution. They must divert attention from their despicable record that has millions suffering in misery today.

The Obama strategy is patently offensive and the opposite of our founding principles of equal opportunity, limited government, and individual liberty. Return America to a free market economy where the individual can pursue their own happiness lifting all people in a growth economy, or vote for the central planners who will decide who will get what portion of your earnings through redistribution. The central planner will choose who is deserving of your labor.

The problems we face today exist because the people who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living. Or as Charles De Montesquie said: “Every lazy nation is grave; for those who do not work regard themselves as sovereigns of those who work.”

Vote, your nation’s future is at stake.

Nobama 2012 OR Noamerica 2013.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

Musso says the only unknown factor is consumer confidence. Todd is right, if consumer confidence rises we will have a strong year. My question, what will cause consumer confidence to rise?

Will we see a big uptick in jobs? Jobs are the key to increased home sales from my vantage point. If we had the lowest interest rates in 2011 since Adam asked Eve out on a date, and home sales fell to their lowest level since 1998, what other reason could there be than the lack of jobs causing the weak demand?

The construction projects within the medical community will add jobs. The medical community will add jobs due to our aging population having body parts breaking down. Thanks to the baby boomers the medical community will have no problem with demand for services.

The new HyVee, County Market, and Legacy Pointe expansion will add to jobs but may be offset if the Cook Street Post Office is closed.

Government has always been the number one employer in Sangamon County, until 2011 when overtaken by the combined numbers of the health care industry. Why? A state government that is out of control, lacks leadership and the resolve to tackle budget deficits, and pension liabilities.

After punishing individuals with a 67% and businesses with a 46% income tax increase, revenues fell $1.07 billion below projections and the state remains $8 billion behind on vendor payments. Do you think it’s fair to say we can’t count on state government increasing employment this year?

How about the county? The strong conservative leadership has kept the county solvent. Tough decisions have been made and the budget cuts necessary were made to keep from raising taxes. Andy Goleman appearing on Let’s Talk Real Estate said, we have cut to the bone, so we’ll be in trouble if there is another economic downturn and tax revenues decline. Wonder what is the probability of another downturn?

The city under the interim mayor and new mayor attacked the swelling city budget deficits and now have the budget under control. However at the price of jobs. Can the city and county be counted on to add jobs in 2012? Not realistically.

As jobs go so goes the housing market. It is called supply and demand. Musso correctly pointed out sales were down year over year in the first half because we were comparing sales to a 2010 market that had tax incentives for home buyers. Then sales picked up the second half of 2011 compared to the non tax incentive half of 2010. What Todd omitted was the second half of 2010 following the expiration of tax credits was the worst on record. A 33% drop in the third quarter stunned the industry. It appears all the tax incentive achieved was to rob demand from the second half of the year.

Of course had Todd read my forecast for 2011, it was a no brainer, I predicted the first half of 2011 would appear worse than it was, and the second half better than it was. All due to the artificial influence of government into the market.

Personally the notion that consumer confidence is the unknown factor is being optimistic for the sake of being optimistic. The tax increase, the highest average cost per gallon of gas in history, and food inflation the highest in twenty years have devastated most families disposable incomes.

With the energy policy coming from the Obama administration, does anyone believe consumers will get relief from falling gas prices? Food follows the price of gas, the key ingredient to food inflation.

What exactly is there that could raise consumer confidence this year? Job creation looks to be up slightly at best. Gas prices look to be volatile with Obama rejecting Keystone, his EPA slamming expensive regulations on energy producers, and although opening up more area’s for exploration, has the permitting process slowed to a crawl with only 30% of applications approved in 2011.

With the high national unemployment rate continuing it’s record length since the technical end of the recession, and frankly understated and people know it, we get the news that the GDP grew a pathetic 1.7% in 2011. The promise of Obama that government spending would lead to recovery has failed, even after spending $10 trillion in three years.

As John Ransom Finance editor at TownHall.com reported [quote]:

Obama has spent over $10 trillion since becoming president and we have nothing to show for it. For that kind of money you could have seed-funded a developed economy, like Germany’s, Italy’s or France’s and completely rebuilt every industry from scratch. You have to try really hard to spend money like that and not create any jobs. [end quote]

Forecasts are for 2.5% growth next year by the Federal Reserve. Many private sector economists predict less than 2%, some less than 1%. The debt Obama has dumped on America not only failed to create jobs it now will serve as an anchor preventing job creation as we pay the bill. No help increasing consumer confidence here.

So jobs, high gas and food prices won’t increase consumer confidence. Why is this unknown to the association heads? I think consumer confidence is easily predictable. The only chance consumer confidence will rise and give a boost to the economy, is when it becomes apparent Barack Obama will be defeated. People now understand it is Obama’s anti-business, big government, record spending, central planning, over regulation, and threats of tax increases that are keeping the nation from recovering.

I hope the association is right and we are not just poised for a strong year, but we in fact realize a strong year. However I’m sticking with my forecast that home sales will decline again in 2012 slightly, by 2% to 4%. Check back at the end of the year, we’ll know if I was right, or if I was ecstatic to be wrong.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

Why a January surge in sales? In my opinion three reasons; pent up demand coming off the slowest year since 1998, record low interest rates, and unseasonably mild weather allowing people to get out and about. How long will this surge in sales continue? Nobody knows.

This is good news. If we can sustain this momentum the spring could be returning to normal after last year’s spring market never materialized. Will this be a year for steady growth in home sales, or will this be a year of more ups and downs? We’ll have to wait and see.

As the jobs market goes so goes home sales, the housing market depends upon job growth to add buyers to the market. It was reported yesterday that unemployment in Springfield rose to 7.5%, Illinois was one of two states that saw a rise in unemployment in 2011, and initial claims for unemployment rose by 21,000 last week but remained below the 400,000 mark at 377,000. Collectively this doesn’t represent a steady increase rather than more of the roller coaster effect.

Adding to my concern, the government reported yesterday that the economy grew at 1.7% in 2011. You need 3% GDP growth just to meet the needs of new entrants into the jobs market. Why the concern? The Federal Reserve projected at their meeting in January of 2011 that GDP growth would be 3.4% to 3.9% for 2011, and 3.5% to 4.6% in 2012. After missing GDP growth in 2011 by half, the Fed lowered projections to 2.5% growth in 2012. If they’re as far off this year as last we’re in real trouble.

Another reason I believe the unemployment rate is grossly understated. When the economy truly picks up millions who have given up will reenter the jobs market. The real unemployment rate is closer to 11% and the underemployment rate closer to 20% when these 6 million no longer counted are included.

The news wasn’t good for new home sales either for 2011, the 307,000 sales was the worst on record, more than half below what economists say represent a healthy level, and 75% below the peak in 2005. Perhaps this is the bottom, but I don’t think so because we are looking at several million more potential foreclosures builders will have to compete against.

President Obama in his State of the Union message told us [quote]: While government can’t fix the problem on its own, responsible homeowners shouldn’t have to sit and wait for the housing market to hit bottom to get some relief. That’s why I’m sending this congress a plan that gives every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year on their mortgage, by refinancing at historically low interest rates No more red tape. No more runaround from banks. A small fee on the largest institutions will insure that it won’t add to the deficit, and will give banks that were rescued by taxpayers a chance to repay a deficit of trust. [end quote]

My Midwestern translation; banks and taxpayers bend over and grab your ankles.

Government can’t fix the problem on their own, because they have never acknowledged they are the problem. The CRA and political cronies like Franklin Rains running Fannie Mae caused the problem. The first step to recovery is to identify you are the problem. Responsible homeowners can’t wait for the market to hit bottom because government keeps delaying the inevitable.

Every responsible homeowner? If HAMP was meant to save underwater homeowners, exactly who are you trying to save? Responsible homeowners are current on their mortgages. Streamlining a program makes underwater homeowners responsible how?

No more red tape. Really? The HAMP program successfully processed about 30% of the four million eligible, hundreds of thousands remain mired in red tape attempting to modify their mortgage. If it didn’t work before why will it work now?

Refinancing at record low rates to save about $3,000 on their mortgage. That works out to $250 a month which is substantial to many families. However if you don’t have a job, or are forced to working part time, which represents about twenty-five million Americans, what’s the difference between a $1000 payment and a $1,250 payment when you don’t have a job, or are working part time?

A small fee on the largest financial institutions will ensure that it won’t add to the deficit. Really? Where will the banks get the refinance money? Fannie, Freddie, or the FHA? All three are running deficits today. What makes you believe this won’t add to the deficit by loaning money to banks the government doesn’t have? Is that the reason Fannie Mae just asked for another $100 billion? How is that not an increase to the deficit?

If this is truly paid for with a fee by the banks, who will pay that fee? Just taking a wild guess that the fee will be passed along to homeowners in their refinance closing costs, disqualifying many who don’t have the funds. The big unknown in this proposal is will banks be ordered to write down the amount the homeowner is under water? That’s estimated in the trillions of dollars. How can banks absorb this type of loss?

In my opinion the presidents proposal raises more questions than it supplies answers. In 2009 I suggested that the government waive the appraisal requirement on loans that were resetting, no cash out, just a chance to lower the monthly payments and lock into a permanent payment. This would have helped an unknown number of people to keep their homes.

This most recent proposal is late to the party, the damage is done, why not allow the market to self correct? One thing the president is right about, we in the industry, and homeowners that need to sell, can’t wait for the bottom to be reached. Only then can we begin the climb back up and have a true recovery in housing. Government intervention will once again delay the bottom and recovery.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

Hamp is the failed $75 billion mortgage modification program meant to help four million homeowners who were underwater or delinquent on their mortgages in 2009. Good news it’s now 2012, and only two million families are delinquent on their mortgages headed for the foreclosure grinder now that legal objections to robo signing have been resolved.

Approximately thirty percent were helped, many gave up when trapped in an endless bureaucratic nightmare, but most just walked away from their homes or were foreclosed. Good intentions gone bad.

Now comes President Obama in his State of the Union message telling us that: While government can’t fix the problem on its own, responsible homeowners shouldn’t have to sit and wait for the housing market to hit bottom to get some relief. That’s why I’m sending this congress a plan that gives every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year on their mortgage, by refinancing at historically low interest rates No more red tape. No more runaround from banks. A small fee on the largest institutions will insure that it won’t add to the deficit, and will give banks that were rescued by taxpayers a chance to repay a deficit of trust.

My Midwestern translation; banks bend over and grab your ankles, taxpayers get in line, you’re next.

Government can’t fix the problem on their own, because they have never acknowledged they are the problem. The CRA and political cronies like Franklin Rains running Fannie Mae caused the problem. The first step to recovery is to identify you are the problem. Responsible homeowners can’t wait for the market to hit bottom because government keeps delaying the inevitable.

Every responsible homeowner? If HAMP was meant to save underwater homeowners, exactly who are you trying to save? Responsible homeowners are current on their mortgages. Streamlining a program makes these homeowners responsible how?

No more red tape. Really? Milton Friedman said it best, if you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara desert we would have a sand shortage within five years.

Refinancing at record low rates to save about $3,000 on their mortgage? That works out to about $250 a month which is substantial to many families. However if you don’t have a job, or are forced to working part time, which represents about twenty-five million Americans, what increased their ability to make a $1000 a payment instead of a $1,250 payment?

A small fee on the largest financial institutions will ensure that it won’t add to the deficit. Really? Where will the banks get the refinance money? Fannie, Freddie, or the FHA? All three are running deficits today. What makes you believe this won’t add to the deficit by loaning money to banks that they don’t have? Is that the reason Fannie and Freddie just asked for another $100 billion? How is that not an increase to the deficit?

If this is truly paid for with a fee by the banks, who will pay that fee? Just taking a wild guess that the fee will be passed along to home buyers in their closing costs. Excellent idea, disqualify more prospective home buyers from being able to buy a home when 2011 just had the fewest new homes built on record, the fewest new homes sold on record, and the second fewest existing homes sold on record.

This coming on the heels of the ingenious Obama, Reid sixty day extension of the Social Security Payroll Tax Holiday. How did they pay for those sixty days of relief? They added a fee to Fannie and Freddie loans for ten years.

Too little too late President Obama. I suggested in 2009 that in order to save homeowners from foreclosures due to adjustable rates resetting, to waive the appraisal provision this one time. That would have instantly saved an untold number from foreclosure. Glad you came to the party three years late.

If Obama were in Army demolition, instead of setting the charge off when told, he would wait until after the enemy had crossed the bridge and breached the perimeter.

Yes, an Obama policy is like a gift from your grandmother, you appreciate the intention, but you know you’re probably not going to like it.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

Letter submitted (unaltered):

President Obama displayed his true colors by rejecting the Keystone XL Pipeline. Green. Seems donations from environmentalists are more important than the unemployed, working poor, and millions stuck in poverty.

Quoting your AP article from Thursday the 19th: “Though the project promises thousands of temporary jobs for the recovering U.S. economy, Obama said a February deadline set by Congress would not allow for proper review of potential harm from the $7 billion dollar Keystone XL project.”

First AP implies there’s a recovery. Really? I hope the AP writer was wearing an Obama cheerleading outfit when he penned this article.

Second there were 20,000 temporary jobs during construction. Permanent jobs to follow were estimated at 250,000 to 500,000 by API. 15,000 jobs in Illinois according to IPC. Caterpillar in Illinois manufactures the construction equipment.

Third this was the most studied pipeline in American history. Approved by EPA after a three year study. Obama’s executive permit approval was a formality. Either Obama lied or was demagoguing when saying he didn’t have time to review for harm to the environment. Proof once again you cannot trust what the sycophants at AP reports. Omission is as great a sin as commission.

Obama and Democrats proved with this decision they no longer stand for the working man, the middle class, or the poor. If they ever did.

Obama can no longer claim to being for energy independence. At full capacity, up to a million barrels of oil daily would be delivered from a friendly neighbor. Obama chooses to remain dependent upon Mid-East oil subjecting Americans to dangerous price fluctuations from a volatile region.

This was a despicable decision that makes no sense on any level to a struggling people. Obama made a political calculation and not a prudent economic decision.

end letter

Obama is bald faced lying, throwing the working man, working poor under the bus to curry favor with wacko environmental zealots.

One outlined in the letter was the claim that there wasn’t enough time to study, a lie on its face, but you would never know it from AP. The reason there was a 60 day deadline was because it was Obama himself along with Harry Reid who demanded the sixty days after the house had passed a one year extension of the Social Security payroll tax holiday which included Keystone.

Second Obama says the application can be reapplied for after the election. Dave Sykuta appearing on my radio program yesterday said it’s not that simple. By Obama going to the state department to pull their approval after three and a half years of study, means the new application could take three years before the next approval. In other words starting from scratch.

Obama could have approved the project putting thousands to work immediately, while looking at the 45 mile stretch from 1700 miles of pipeline the environmental radicals were disputing. At question is the Ogallala aquifer which already has over 21,000 miles of pipeline running over its top. The complaint? There have been 13 reports of leaks, 10 of which leaked 7 gallons or less, and two that were internal, never leaving the outside casing of the pipeline. There are safety valves strategically placed to limit spills. Pipelines are proven the safest, and least polluting method to transport oil.

Environmentalists lie when referring to a Deep Water Horizon type tragedy spoiling the aquifer. Obama lies by playing along, remaining silent, and the AP with the investigative skill of a two year old fails in their jobs. AP now stands for Associated Pravda.

Another lie is being foisted upon the public by the media, that Canada will wait for approval. Sykuta says Canada will sell their oil to the Chinese who have none of the environmental controls of U.S. refineries and produce a gasoline that will pollute, hoisting the environmentalists stated goal by their own petard.

FYI the area’s in Illinois and America that are seeing low unemployment and strong housing markets? Everywhere fossil fuels are being captured, or refined. Obama once again not only does nothing to help the housing market, he fails to help when reasonable solutions are presented.

Robert Samuelson Democrat and liberal writer for The Washington Post summed it up nicely in his article regarding the Keystone decision: http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2Frejecting-the-keystone-pipeline-is-an-act-of-insanity%2F2012%2F01%2F19%2FgIQAowG6AQ_story.html&h=wAQEZ_yD7AQFCK1KXq0UTEO7n8rYO9JoijAfoUNKGETlykg

Samuelson’s headline? “Rejecting the Keystone pipeline is an act of insanity.”

Perhaps a private enterprise funded without any taxpayer money, creating potentially hundreds of thousands of jobs, was too much for the statist driving him insane.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

New home construction in the nation continues to be in a depression due to competing foreclosed and short sale properties. Housing starts in December were expected to increase due to mild weather, however dipped 4.1%, while building permits were unchanged.

From Bloomberg News [quote]: Builders began work on fewer houses than forecast in December, capping the worst year on record for single family home construction and signaling recovery in the industry will take time. [end quote]

The 103 single family permits in Springfield will be reported down by 3, however when you exclude the 28 permits for government housing, the 75 permits were the fewest since 1982.

To get an idea of the stagnate economy’s impact in Sangamon County, compare building permits from 2006 at the height of the market to 2011: New Berlin down 50%, Sherman down 50%, Springfield down 53%, Chatham down 74%, and Rochester down 85%.

Housing can’t recover until the jobs market recovers, and foreclosed and short sale properties are absorbed by the market. Now that most legal challenges have been settled there could be 900,000 foreclosures released by banks, another one million foreclosed, and Realty Trac reports another 2 million homeowners are 60 days or longer delinquent in their house payments.

Once again that reflects the abysmal jobs market. The state of Illinois released their unemployment figures for December which fell for the second straight month ending the year at 9.8%. Full disclosure, I don’t trust the reporting methodology. But we will take it at face value when the state says the year finished with 5.68 million jobs an increase of 52,600 from 2010. The reason my trust meter is going off is due to the Illinois Policy Institute showing about the opposite. Either way it’s not good.

One year has passed since the passage of the Democrats income tax increase of 67% on individuals, and 46% on corporations. Unemployment is reported to be down 1% for the year. My question is, are those who are no longer being counted, or those who have departed Illinois the reason? Who knows, however from my weekly observations one year ago following the tax increase [quote]:

The article headlining the Business section; “Higher taxes impact on real estate uncertain.” Say what? Dr. Hewings of The U of I said raising individual and corporate taxes could be stabilizing state finances, or it could hurt if long term budget problems still go unresolved.

Dr. Hewings, and the association’s of Realtors may say the impact of higher taxes is uncertain, but allow me to be so bold as saying without spending cuts, the impact is certain. This plan will fail. [end quote]

Seems Dr. Hewings was right. Comptroller Topinka reported this week that the state has a backlog of over $8 billion in unpaid bills, with $4.5 billion in unpaid bills dating back to September. Doesn’t seem anything was resolved. The state association of Realtors hasn’t released the final home sale numbers for 2011. I’m betting they’re down, but we do know the local association finished the year with the fewest home sales since 1998. Now tell me again how the tax increase impact upon housing was uncertain?

From my weekly observations on January 29, 2011 [quote]:

The state has projected the tax hike will raise $6.8 billion in new revenues. I don’t believe that will be the case, and here’s why. The $6.8 billion will no longer be available to families and businesses to spend on goods and services. This means business not only will have their taxes increase 46% but they will see their sales decline by $6.8 billion driving down profits and sales tax revenues. The economy is not static, and the unintended consequences of higher taxes will provide less revenue than projected. [end quote]

Not to be found in the SJR, but in this weeks Chatham Clarion comes this article titled: Little difference marks anniversary of tax increase. I won’t bore you with the whole article, but this is the paragraph of relevance [quote]: According to the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, the largest tax increase measure in Illinois history was expected to bring in $7.078 billion/year in net general revenues. Further analysis of CGFA shows that the tax increase HAS NOT met January 2011 expectations and has experienced a SHORTFALL of $1.086 billion. [end quote].

Sad to say I was right again. Tax increases never raise the money expected and are down because they hurt the economy more than they help. The flawed logic of raising taxes to increase revenue is proven again for the umpteenth time. When will these people learn?

The same will be true on the national level with President Obama’s continued call for tax increases upon the rich. Disregarding the fact that the projected revenues would only generate an estimated $70 to $80 billion to put toward $1.3 trillion in annual deficit spending, or .005 percent of that deficit, that still will be $70 to $80 billion less to be spent in the private sector, meaning once again the flawed premise that raising taxes will increase revenues will fail again.

However the most recent action of President Obama showed his true colors; green. Obama proved that donations and votes are more important to him than the unemployed, those in poverty, and the struggling middle class by denying the Keystone XL pipeline.

An estimated 20,000 temporary jobs, and 250,000 to 500,000 permanent jobs were sacrificed so Obama could appease the radical environmental wing of the Democratic Party to obtain donations and votes. This is not to mention the impact this pipeline could have had to lower gas and food prices benefiting all American families. Seems the most studied pipeline in history, over three years by the EPA, wasn’t enough time time to determine the environmental impact according to Obama. This was a purely partisan political calculation chosen over a prudent economic decision that would have helped people.

Now is the time to get that home sold before the state or federal governments cause more harm to the economy. This Thursday at 6:00pm at the Springfield Hilton Garden Inn plan to attend my free no obligation home seller seminar. Interest rates have fallen to the lowest since Adam asked Eve on a date. Learn how to get sold in the new economy, now is probably as good as it will get. Call 217-391-1811 to reserve your seat.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

(please excuse spelling, grammer, language, copied exactly as sent. the ** was my editing)

Answer: go see the president. Dodd Frank is killing the economy. In the name of preventing another meltdown, which it won’t, they wrote the rules that make the banks deny you. Obama theory denies prosperity by regulating the private sector into stagnation. No bubbles can be created or popped if the govt prevents a prosperity economy. Dodd Frank is responsible for about a third of all loan denials. Go thank the Democrats if the President isn’t available. So my liberal friends stop blaming the banks, the blame lay with govt. You voted for it, live with it.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

John did more than asked, and it’s not pretty for the local economy in 2011 going into 2012. In a related story The University of Illinois Springfield released the Springfield Economic Index (SEI). On the 28th of January we are honored to have Patricia Byrnes of UIS, Economics Department, Center for State Policy and Leadership join us.  The SEI is forecast to go from 98 in October of 2011 to 62 by July before rebounding to 88 in October of 2012. A reading under100 represents below normal economic activity.

Here are the final numbers for building permits for Springfield as reported by the Department of Building and Zoning. December single family permits issued: 0, two family: 0, multi-family: 0, commercial 0. Simply stunning.

The year 2011 building permits compared to 2010: single family 103 (includes 28 issued to The Springfield Housing Authority for public housing), down by 3, two family 21 down 14; multi-family 6 down 2; commercial 25 up 5. Not pretty.

If you deduct the public housing permits that leaves 75 single family permits issued to builders, the fewest since 1982. Here’s what John Stites reported for the surrounding communities single family building permits: Sherman 22 down 10, Rochester 7 down 3, Chatham 40 down 9, New Berlin 2 up 2.

What is the eye opener is the comparison to the number of permits to the height of the market in 2006 only five years removed. John went further however and reports on population growth between the 2000 and 2010 census.

The first number is the percent of population growth, then the comparison to 2006 single family building permits. Springfield population up 5.9%, permits down 53%. Sherman population up 34.9%, permits down 50%. Rochester population up 12.2%, permits down 85%. Chatham population up 26.1%, permits down 74%. New Berlin population up 10.4%, permits down 50%. Population is up 5.9% to 34.9% while single family permits are down 50% to 85%. Stunning.

This comes on the heels of home sales in the local MLS falling to their lowest level since 1998. Perhaps my prediction for further declines in home sales of 2% to 4% are optimistic again. We’ll see.

The challenge for local home builders are numerous. Mr. Stites says in the past two years government regulations have driven up the cost to build a home by 7% to 8%. That he used to be able to predict activity out a minimum of six months, now he can’t predict out six days, because OSHA has implemented and will be implementing a plethora of new regulations that are to be released soon. Stites says this makes business planning a nightmare. He has no idea what his costs will be this year.

To make matters worse traditionally there are enough new homes being built to support existing home prices. The combination of the weakest demand for homes since 1998 with foreclosures and short sales pulling existing home prices down, new homes are extremely hard to sell.

In normal markets the spread between the price of a new home and an existing home could be between 7% to 10%. Many families opt for a new home for only 7% more in price than the used home. When combining government mandates driving up building costs, with the drag foreclosures and short sales are pulling down existing prices, Stites says the spread is now almost 30%. Most families won’t pay 30% more in an uncertain economy for new over used.

This doesn’t bode well for the future until the foreclosure inventory and short sale inventory is absorbed by the market, and government stops adding to building costs.

The big government central planning and control by the Obama administration is preventing recovery and job growth with their constant barrage upon business and industry. The new regulations added to small business according to the NFIB is up to $50 billion a year in just the past two years, with more coming.

Please don’t believe the President’s  photo op yesterday when announcing he’s now a deficit hawk and wants to streamline government by consolidating agencies. His proposal affects 32 bureaucracies that will save $300 million a year. That’s a rounding error in a budget Obama has increased to $3.8 trillion a year, and the man who created 150 new bureaucracies with Dodd Frank, and Obamacare adding hundreds of billions in costs and thousands of bureaucrats.

This is merely a political ploy to have film for deceptive Democratic propaganda campaign ads. Sadly millions of Americans don’t pay attention until we are close to the election. Funded with a billion dollars from Wall Street friends, and unions this propaganda may be all these folks see. Obama thinks the American people are fools, those who believe the propaganda are.

Mr. Stites and I both agree, it is fiscally impossible for an economic recovery if President Obama is reelected and continues to grow the government and saddle small business with higher regulatory costs, fuel cost, energy costs, and taxes that he is proposing. Impossible.

From international economist Nouriel Roubini comes this as reported on Project Syndicate via The Business Insider [quote]:

At the same time, even after six years of a housing recession, the sector is comatose. With demand for new homes having fallen by 80% relative to the peak, the downward price adjustment is likely to continue in 2012 as the supply of new and existing homes continues to exceed demand. Up to 40% of households with a mortgage – 20 million – could end up with negative equity in their homes. Thus, the vicious cycle of foreclosures and lower prices is likely to continue – and, with so many households severely credit-constrained, consumer confidence, while improving, will remain weak. [end quote]

The economy can not recover until housing recovers.

This doesn’t bode well for the area housing market, homeowners, home values, and the ability to sell a home when necessary. President Obama needs to change policies, which won’t happen, or we need to change presidents for any hope to put people back to work, and begin a real recovery, not a pretend one that the media and administration would have you believe.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.